中国成品油市场2009年回顾与2010年展望

China's refined oil product market:2009 and 2010

2009年中国宏观经济和主要用油行业增速放缓,成品油(汽油、柴油、煤油)需求增速明显下降,全年成品油表观消费量2.21亿吨,同比增长2.5%,远低于2000-2008年8.4%的平均增速,为亚洲金融危机以来最低。全年汽油表观消费量6704.9万吨,同比增长5.5%;柴油表观消费量1.39亿吨,同比下降0.2%;煤油表观消费量1497万吨,同比增长17%。2009年中国炼油工业逆势上扬,成品油产量2.28亿吨,同比增长9.4%,远高于2.5%的成品油消费增速。成品油市场由金融危机前的"供应偏紧"转为"供应宽松"。中国推出新的成品油价格形成机制,国内、国际油价联动更为密切。2010年中国宏观经济继续向好,汽油需求将保持平稳增长,柴油需求增速大幅回升,煤油需求增速回落。国内炼油能力继续扩张,成品油供应能力进一步增加。预计2010年中国成品油表观消费量2.38亿吨,同比增长7.7%;成品油产量2.43万吨,同比增长6.7%,市场仍将延续"供略大于求"的态势。

In 2009 the rate of growth in the Chinese macro-economy and the major industries which use oil slowed. Demand for refined oil (gasoline,diesel and kerosene) decreased markedly,with apparent consumption for the entire year at 221 million tons,2.5% higher than the previous year,This increase was far lower than the average growth rate for 2000 to 2008,which was 8.4%,and is the lowest rate of increase since the Asian Financial Crisis. Apparent consumption of gasoline for the year was 67.049 million tons,up 5.5% from the previous year. Apparent consumption of diesel was 139 million tons,down 0.2% from 2008. Apparent consumption of kerosene was 14.97 million tons,representing a year on year increase of 17%.In 2009 the Chinese oil refining industry went against the trend in increasing output,producing 228 million tons,9.4% more than the previous year. This is significantly higher than the 2.5% increase in consumption of refined oil products. The market supply for refined oil has gone from tight balance before the financial crisis to abundant. China has launched a new pricing mechanism for refined oil products,with changes in domestic and international prices more closely linked. It is estimated that apparent consumption of refined oil for 2010 will be 238 million tons,which represents an annual increase of 7.7%. Production of refined oil will reach 243 million tons,increasing by 6.7%. The market will continue to exhibit the trend of supply outstripping demand.