基于产能的耕地资源人口承载力研究

Study on Population Carrying Capacity of Cultivated Land Based on Production Capacity

本文旨在探讨测算耕地人口承载力的科学方法,为新一轮土地利用规划修编中的资源区域配置和人口政策提供科学依据。首先,介绍了耕地理论产能和实际产能核算的方法,并在此基础上建立了未来耕地生产能力预测模型,形成了以Logistic生物模型和人口发展方程模型为人口预测方法,以宽裕型、小康型、富裕型3种消费水平为标准的耕地资源人口承载力计算方法。然后,以该方法为手段,以河北省卢龙县为例进行了实证研究,研究结果表明卢龙县2010年与2020年耕地生产能力分别为256826.96t和299631.45t,均可满足该县温饱型、小康型粮食消费需求,但未达到富裕型人口粮食消费需求,分别超载22837人和56617人。实证研究表明该方法测算结果符合当地实际发展情况,是一种较科学的人口承载力测算方法。

In order to provide a scientific basis for regional resources allocation and population policies in the new round of land-use planning revision,the paper aims to explore the scientific method of calculating the population carrying capacity of the method of cultivated land. First,on the basis of intorducing the accounting method of theoretical and realistic production capacity construct the prediction model about future production capacity of cultivated land,forming the calculating method of population carrying capacity which is based on the population projection method of Logistic biological model and population growth equation model in the three consumption levels,well-off,comparatively well-off and surplus. Then,the paper taking Lulong County as an example makes an empirical study,the results show that the production capacity are 256 826.96 and 299 631.45 ton in 2010 and 2020 which can meet the food consumption demand in well-off and comparatively well-off,but can＇t meet the food consumption demand in surplus,overloading 22 837 and 56 617 people. The empirical study show that the calculating results adapt to local conditions is a more scientific method of calculating population carrying capacity.