中国人口增长预测

On Prediction Model of China's Population Growth

根据已有的数据资料,结合中国人口增长特点,将市、镇、乡不同性别的人口按不同的年龄段分别讨论,建立了Leslie矩阵迭代的人口预测模型,对我国短、中、长期人口进行预测且分别预测出市、镇、乡的各个年龄段男女的人口数.并对中国人口出现的老龄化、男女性别比例、市镇乡人口比例等问题进行具体分析,得到比较理想的预测结果.

Based on the characteristics of the China＇s population growth,dividing the population of cities,towns,and villages into different genders at different ages and establishing the Leslie matrix iteration population projection model,we project China＇s short-term,medium-term and long-term population and forecast men and women population in cities,towns,villages in various age groups.And we analyze such issues as China＇s population aging,sex ratio,the proportion of rural and urban population,then we obtain the ideal prediction results.