货币供应量的增加能引起价格水平的上涨吗——基于资产价格波动的财富效应分析

Can an Increase in Money Supply Cause Price Levels to Rise?——An Analysis Based on the Wealth Effect of Asset Price Volatility

随着国际金融危机冲击的不断减弱,各国经济出现了触底反弹的迹象,天量的货币投放再度引发人们对通货膨胀的担忧。货币数量理论所代表的经济自由主义和凯恩斯主义所代表的政府干预主义在货币供应量对价格水平的影响问题上存在分歧,正确认识这种分歧具有重要的现实意义。本文利用中国1996年1月～2009年3月的经济金融月度数据,在引进房地产市场价格指数和股票市场价格指数的基础上,对中国的货币供应量M2与价格水平CPI之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:货币数量理论在中国仍具有一定的适用性,M2和CPI之间存在长期稳定的正向关系,但M2的增加并不能引发CPI同比例的上涨;股票市场财富效应存在,股票市场价格指数的变化对CPI有重要影响;中国房地产市场财富效应不明显,房地产价格指数的变化不会对CPI变化产生明显影响;CPI具有较强的惯性。因此,当前中央银行要引导和管理好通货膨胀预期,将货币政策目标的重心由保经济增长回归到维持物价稳定上来,防止预期的通胀变成现实的通胀;同时,还要关注资产价格通过财富效应对CPI产生影响。

As the negative impact of international financial crisis being weak, the economy of most countries of the world has had the sign of rebound. The mass money supply aroused people’s anxiousness about inflation once more. Economic liberalism represented by the quantity theory of money is different from government intervention represented by the Keynesianism on the impact of the money supply to the price level. It’s important to understand the difference between these two theories. The paper introduces the real estate market price index and the stock market price index and studies the relationship between M2 and CPI by using the data of 1996.01 to 2009.03. We find that the quantity theory of money is still applicable. M2 has a long-term stable positive relationship with CPI, but the increase in M2 does not lead to the increase in CPI proportionally. The stock market price index has an impact on the CPI because of the stock market wealth effect. However the real estate market wealth effect is not obvious and the real estate market price index does not have significant effect on the CPI. CPI has a strong inertia. Therefore, the central bank should manage inflation expectations and make the focus of monetary policy objectives return to the maintenance of price stability. Meanwhile, the central bank should care about the impact of asset prices on CPI through the wealth effect.