用序贯博弈理论探讨烟叶生产和卷烟工业的发展

Developmental Trends of Tobacco Producer and Cigarettes Industry Based on Sequential Game Model

继国家烟草专卖局提出发展中式卷烟和特色烟叶的战略决策后,卷烟工业与烟叶生产之间相互依赖的关系变得更加紧密,但是二者作为独立的经济主体,也存在经济利益的冲突。如何处理好二者之间的利益冲突,对于中国烟草行业健康可持续发展至关重要。笔者运用序贯博弈理论建立支付矩阵,分析卷烟工业企业和烟叶生产之间利益冲突的发展和演变过程,认为烟叶生产应明确和稳定当地特色烟叶品质;卷烟工业企业深入挖掘特色烟叶在中式卷烟中的配伍性能,自主开发风格独特的中式品牌卷烟。烟草种植与卷烟企业相互合作共同稳定烟叶和卷烟的质量,中国烟草业才会形成长期可持续发展的局面。

Followed the strategic decision-making of the development Chinese style cigarettes and characteristics tobacco by State Tobacco Mo- nopoly Bureau,the relationship between the cigarette industry and tobacco producer is more independent and closely. However, there is a con- flict of economic interests between the cigarette industry and tobacco producer, because they are independent economic entities ,which ere es- sential for sustainable development handling between the interests of the health of the Chinese tobacco industry. In this paper, there are set the model of sequential game between cigarette companies and tobacco producer to establish the payment matrix, and to analysis their decision- making process. On one hand,tobacco producer should be to clear and stabilize the characteristics quality of local tobacco leaves,on the other hand,tobacco industry should clearly know the compatibility of different characteristics leaves in the Chinese style cigarettes, which a unique style of Chinese brand cigarettes developed by oneself. In short,China＇s tobacco industry will form a long-term sustainable development,when they effort cooperatively to stabilize the quality of both tobacco and cigarettes.