石油价格波动、人民币汇率与宏观经济相互影响的机制分析

Mechanism Analysis of the Influence amony the Fuctuation of oil price,RBM Exchange Rate and Macroeconomics

我国人民币汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率升值和石油价格波动对我国宏观经济产生巨大影响,本文首先从理论机制上分析金融危机发生前石油价格、人民币汇率与宏观经济之间的影响。再通过建立协整和误差修正模型实证检验,分析结果表明:石油价格上涨会推动我国的通货膨胀上升;美元贬值会使得石油价格提高;在其他条件不变情况下,人民币兑美元名义汇率、石油价格与工业经济三者保持长期稳定关系。

After RMB exchange rate regime reform,have exerted great influence on China＇s macroeconemics.the appreciation of RBM exchange rate and fluctuation of oil price.The paper theoretically discusses the influence among increasing oil price and appreciation of RBM exchange rate,and macroeconomic before financial crisis.Then,it applies the Co-integration and ECM model to test the result,and concludes that oil price increasing will push inflation,depreciation of US dollar will raise oil price,and it will keep long time stable relationship among with the RMB exchange rate against US dollar,oil price,and industrial economics.