第二松花江丰满以上流域洪水与厄尔尼诺年相关性研究

Relativity between EL Nino Year and flood upstream Second Songhuajiang River basin

第二松花江丰满以上流域洪水与厄尔尼诺年有很好的相关性。１９５０～１９９８年发生了６次重现期为３０年以上量级的大洪水中，有５次发生在厄尔尼诺年；３次重现期为７０年以上量级的大洪水全部发生在厄尔尼诺年。本文介绍了根据对流域洪水与厄尔尼诺年相关性研究而建立二者的相关关系模式，为厄尔尼诺年流域洪水的预测预报找到了一条新途径。

A close relativity exists between the watershed flood above the Fengman Reservoir on the Second Songhuajiang River and EL Nino year. In 1950￣1998, 5 of 6 floods with return period more than 30 year and 3 floods with return period more than 70 year happened in EL Nino year. The paper introduces a correlation model of both based on correlativity study watershed flood and EL Nino year. A new way is found for the watershed flood forecast in EL Nino year.