洪水灾害分析与评估的综合集成方法

A Comprehensive Methodology with Analysis and Evaluation Integration for Flood Disaster

从系统论的观点出发，提出了洪水灾害复杂大系统的概念，讨论了该系统的组成特征及其高维性、动态性、复杂性等特征和基于定性与定量的综合集成方法，探讨了洪水灾害系统模拟、预测、评估与决策的综合分析方法。为进一步开展洪水灾害的管理与调控方法的研究奠定了基础，并将有利于促进资源、环境与社会的协调发展。

From the viewpoint of system theory, the concept of complex large system for flood disaster is put forward, and some aspects of its characteristics such as high dimension, dynamics and complexity are discussed. Based on the comprehensive methodology with qualitative and quantilative integration, the comprehensive methodology of flood disaster analysis such as simulation, forecasting and evaluation as well as decision are investigated. Therefore, it will provide the scientific basis for investigating the methodology for the management and control on flood disaster, and it is helpful for improving the relationships among resource and environmant as well as social development.