我国化肥价格波动与农民收入关系的实证分析

An Empirical analysis on the Relationship between the Income of Farmers and Fluctuation of the Price of Fertilizer

本文利用1978～2008年的时间序列数据,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术考察化肥价格波动与农民收入之间的关系,发现化肥价格的波动与农民收入变化之间存在着双向的因果关系,即化肥价格的上涨导致农民增收缓慢,而化肥价格上涨的根本原因在于"需求拉动"和"成本推动"。今后必须从需求和供给两方面采取对策:一方面通过建立化肥直接补贴制度和化肥储备制度,从需求上控制化肥价格上涨;另一方面通过采用新型化肥生产技术和给予化肥生产企业生产用能以优惠政策,从供给上控制化肥价格上涨。

The paper based on the time series data of 1978-2008, using impulse response and variance decomposition technology to study the relationship between the price of the chemical fertilizer and the income of farmers. The study shows that the relationship between the fertilizer price fluctuations and the income of the farmers exists two-way causality, the fundamental reason of the rising fertilizer price is ＂demand pull＂and＂cost-push＂. Therefore, the government must take measures to ease the from both supply and demand side, on the one hand, the government can control fertilizer price from rising through establishment of a direct subsidy system fertilizer and fertilizer reserve system; on the other hand, fertilizer production enterprises can control production cost by using new technology and the preferential policies of the production energy.