张北6.2级地震预报纪实——地震活动性试验预报纪实之五

ON-THE-SPOT REPORT OF THE PREDICTION OF ZHANGBEI M6.2 EARTHQUAKE

根据对华北地震活动性分析研究，在１９９７年１０月下旬举行的１９９８年度会商会上笔者提出了本年度地震活动趋势意见，其中的空间预测区就包括了今年１月１０日张北地震活动区。１９９７年１１月１３日根据震情三分律和对称模式作出了１９９７年１１月１３日到１９９８年１月２３日共７３天的短期预报。到１９９７年１２月至１９９８年１月２日又出现了第二个层次的三分律图象。

According to observational analysis of seismic activities in North China,We gave out the 1998 earthquake active tendency on the discussion meeting held in Octob er 1997,the predictive spatial area included Zhangbei seismic region where the e arthquake occurred on Jan.10,1998.On Nov.13,1997,the short term prediction from Nov.13,1997 to Jan.23,1998 was made by 'seismic condition third section Law'and 'symmetry model'.From Dec.2,1997 to Jan.2,1998,the second 'third section Iaw'im age appeared again,we gave out the second short term prediction from Jan.3,1998 to Feb.3,1998.