政策制定中交通弱势群体受抑制需求分析方法

A Suppressed Demand Analysis Method of the Transportation Disadvantaged in Policy Making

在交通弱势群体受抑制需求可被计算、并将其加入现有出行需求的前提下,提出一种预估交通供需的方法。该方法的潜在假设是交通弱势群体的出行条件和普通群体相同,即所谓的受抑制需求"全部释放"。在利用"四阶段"法为交通弱势群体建模的过程中,分析了交通弱势群体的受抑制需求及其与普通群体间的平等问题,同时详尽阐述了最易受伤害的交通弱势群体(如老年人和残疾人)的特殊需求,并确定其在各方面面临的困难。最后,利用软件模拟分析得出的结论是:针对交通弱势群体全部释放的受抑制需求(出行总量增加5%),政策制定者须为面临一定的财政负担做好准备,同时做好协调工作,达到既减少运营成本又满足交通弱势群体出行需求的目标。

This paper proposes a method for estimating transportation supply requirements when the suppressed demand of the transportation disadvantaged （TD） can be calculated and added to existing demand for travel.The underlying assumption is that the travel conditions of these TD groups must be equal to the ＇conventional＇ demand,known as ＇full release＇.Utilizing the modelling approach for TD,suppressed demand analysis,diagnosis of difficulties and equity between conventional and disadvantaged groups were realised,while elaborating special cases for the most vulnerable TD groups （such as elderly and disabled persons） and simultaneously identifying areas of difficulty.From the early virtual results,it is concluded that,for the full release of suppressed trips （only a 5% increase）,policy makers must be ready to face some financial burdens,requiring coordination of effort to both standardize these TD groups and reduce the costs incurred by operators.