长期精算模型下上海基本养老保险制度整合的财政压力测试

The Financial Burden of Shanghai's Basic Social Pension System in the Long-term Actuarial Model

文章在对上海以2000年为基础未来50年人口规模预测的基础上,对上海基本养老保险多种制度的整合模式展开探讨,采用长期精算模型对社会统筹部分未来的财政收支进行理论测算,得到如下结论:现有城保、镇保、农保和综保等几种制度可以实现制度整合,不会给财政带来过大压力。上海养老保险调整较为可行的方案是将基本养老保险缴费比例从2010年开始一次性降低到15%、覆盖率用10年时间从现在的50.5%逐渐提高到90%,则在2050年以前都可以实现收支平衡。14%的缴费比例可以作为最低缴费比例,缴费覆盖率临界点为87.03%。

This article makes a projection about Shanghai＇s population size in 50 years from 2000,and makes a theoretical calculation on the financial balance of Shanghai＇s basic social pension fund.It concludes that if we decrease the pension contribution rate to 15% in 2010,while gradually increases the coverage rate from 50.5% to 90% in 10 years.Then we will be able to meet both ends meet before 2050.According to the calculation,14% can be used as the lowest contribution rate and the critical point of the coverage rate will be 87.03%.We must maintain a more than 87.03% pension fund coverage rate to ensure no deficit before 2050.