暴雨型泥石流预报中的降水因子

Rainfall Factors in the Prediction of Rainfall-induced Debris Flow

阐述了影响暴雨型泥石流活动的各降水因子,包括前期降水量、当场降水量、降水持续时间、降水强度、降水峰值、降雨雨型等。暴雨型泥石流的激发是当场降水和前期降水共同作用的结果。构建了暴雨型泥石流预报系统中集数值天气预报、静止气象卫星、天气雷达回波和自动气象站四种方法为一体的先进的降水预报和监测体系。暴雨型泥石流预报是建立在降水预报基础上的,预报模型客观上要求更精细更准确的降水预报产品,这为气象工作者提出了新的课题。

Various rainfall factors that affected the activities of rainfall-induced debris flow were discussed,including previous precipitation,current rainfall,rainfall duration,rainfall intensity,rainfall peak,and precipitation types.Rainfall-induced debris flow is trigged by the co-action of current rainfall and previous rainfall.The advanced precipitation forecast/monitor system of rainfall-induced debris flow forecast project was established,which consisted 4 methods（numerical weather prediction,cloud image of stationary meteorological satellite,Doppler radar echo and automatic meteorological observing station）.Since the forecast of rainfall-induced debris flow was based on the prediction of precipitation,the debris flow models needed the precipitation products to be more detailed and precise,which put forward a new research item for meteorologists.