摘要
地方政府投资对产业结构调整具有重大作用。笔者通过由地方政府投资、三次产业产值结构4个变量,运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解计量等分析工具,对我国1978年～2008年的地方政府投资与产业结构的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:公共投资与三次产业总产值均具有长期正向均衡关系,其中第二产业的促进作用最大,第三产业次之,第一产业最弱,且对第二产业的影响要远大于对第一、三产业的影响。
Local government investment has great effect on the adjustment of industrial structure. Using the analytical tools of cointegration anaysis, VECM, impulse response function and variance decomposition measurement, the author makes an empirical study of the relationship between local government investment and industry structure in our country from 1978 to 2008 on the basis of the four variables of local government investment and the production value structures in the three industries. The result demonstrates that there is a long-term positive equilibrium relationship between public investment and total production value of the three industries and the promotion effect of the second industry is the greatest, the third industry comes next, the first industry is the weakest. The effect of local government investment on the second industry is greater than that on the first and third industries.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期41-45,共5页
Economic Survey
关键词
地方政府投资
产业结构
协整分析
脉冲响应
local government investment
industrial structure
cointegration analysis
impulse response
