我国经济增长、能源结构与能源消费关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between China's Economic Growth,Energy Structure and Energy Consumption

经济增长、能源结构与能源消费的关系是我国在保持经济增长的同时解决能源供需矛盾,实现能源、经济与环境可持续发展的重要问题。文章基于1978年~2007年能源统计数据,对中国经济增长、能源结构与能源消费进行了因果关系和协整性的研究。发现中国存在单向的经济增长到能源消费和能源结构的因果关系,以及能源结构和能源消费的双向因果关系。短期与长期中能源结构对于能源消费的影响都要大于经济增长对于能源消费的影响。

In the process of China’s economic growth,its relationship between energy structure and energy consumption is the key problem to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of energy,and realize sustainable development of energy,economy and environment.Based on the energy statistics between 1978 and 2007,this thesis has made the causality and cointegration study of economic growth,energy structure and energy consumption in China.It is shown that in China there is a unilateral causality from economic growth to energy consumption and energy structure,and the two-way causality between energy structure and energy consumption.In the short-term and long-term,the impact of energy structure on energy consumption is more significant than that of economic growth.