中国制造业产业内贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationship between Intra-industry Trade in Chinese Manufacturing and Economic Growth

运用GL指数和GHM法分析了1992～2006年中国制造业产业内贸易的水平和结构,发现产业内贸易已成为中国制造业的主要贸易方式,而制造业产业内贸易以垂直型为主。运用Eviews5.0对中国制造业产业内贸易与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,协整回归和误差修正模型表明,在长期内我国的经济增长与制造业产业内贸易存在稳定的正相关关系,短期内同样存在这种关系;Granger因果检验结果表明,中国制造业产业内贸易与中国经济增长之间存在双向的Granger因果关系;方差分解给出了两者之间交互影响的具体特征描述。

This paper firstly analyzes the level and structure of the Intra-industry Trade（IIT） in Chinese manufacturing from 1992 to 2006 using GL index and GHM.It finds that IIT has become the main pattern in Chinese manufacturing industry,and vertical trade is the main part of IIT.Furthermore,via Eviews5.0,the paper empirically studies the relationship between IIT in Chinese manufacturing and economic growth.According to the Co-integration Regression and Error Correction Model,in the long term,the economic growth in China is positively related to the IIT in Chinese manufacturing.This positive relationship also exists in the short time.The Granger causality test shows that there is two-direction causality between IIT in Chinese manufacturing and the economic growth.The Variance Decomposition describes the specification of the interaction.