基于因子分析与熵值法的水资源承载力研究——以天津市为例

Research on Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on Component Analysis Method and Entropy Value Method-A Case Study of Tianjin

以天津地区为例,运用因子分析法从水资源、生态环境、社会经济活动等14个指标中规整出影响天津市水资源承载力变化的4个主因子,并用熵值法对4个主因子赋权,计算出1998～2007年天津市水资源承载力的综合得分。结果表明,10年间天津市水资源承载力变化相对稳定,除1999、2002、2006年三年水资源承载力出现弱化趋势外,其余各年均稳中有增,但增幅缓慢。随着人口经济社会的不断发展,天津市水资源将面临重大考验。

Taking Tianjin as an example,this article selects four components which influence water resource carrying capacity from 14 indexes（including water resource,the environment and the society） with component analysis method.Then using entropy value method to bestow weights to the four components,the scores of Tianjin＇s water resource carrying capacity from 1998 to 2007 are obtained.The result shows that the water resource carrying capacity of Tianjin keeps stable,and the water resource carrying capacity increases year by year except the year of 1999,2002 and 2006,but the increasing is slow comparatively.Tianjin will be faced with severe reality of water resource along with the development of the society.