基于VAR模型的西藏粮食增长趋势分析

Analysis of Tibetan Grain Increasing Trend Based on VAR Model

基于西藏粮食产量与各投入要素的1980～2007年统计资料实证分析,通过Granger因果关系检验和协整检验,进而构造脉冲响应函数,并对因变量预测误差进行分解。结果表明:农业劳动力、土地、化肥是促进西藏粮食增长的主要因素;有效灌溉面积的投入对西藏粮食生产的贡献长期处于较低的水平;农业基本建设投资对西藏粮食增长的贡献非常低。西藏粮食生产目前仍是粗放型生产,但已出现转型的趋势。

Based on the empirical study of Tibetan grain output and devotion factors from 1980 to 2007 through Granger causality and Co-integration test,this paper constructs impulse response function and analyzes error of dependent variable prediction.The result shows that： agricultural labor force,land and chemical fertilizer are the main factors of grain increasing;devotion of effective irrigation to grain increasing is low in a long time;devotion of capital construction in agriculture to grain increasing is low.Tibetan grain production is extensive but shows the trend of transition.