我国社会医疗保险费用的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of China's Social Medical Insurance Costs

目的:为控制社会医疗保险费用的过快增长提供建议。方法:基于1995～2008年的相关数据,运用主成分综合模型和灰色关联分析对影响我国社会医疗保险费用增长的因素进行研究。结果:由主成分综合模型可知我国社会医疗保险费用支出逐年递增且增长幅度越来越大,由灰色关联分析可知医保支出的影响因素中政府预算卫生支出、参保人数、城镇居民可支配收入和医院床位数等4个指标较其他指标与医保支出的关联性更强。结论:继续加强对我国医疗服务的监督和管理,依据影响因素与医保支出的关联性提出控制社会医保费用支出过快增长的建议。

Objective：To put forward some suggestion on how to control the excessive growth of social medical insurance costs. Methods：Based on the data from 1995 to 2008,the factors which influence China＇s social medical insurance costs are studied through using principal components integrated model and gray relational analysis. Results：China＇s social health insurance expenses increased year after year and the growth rate increased,too. The factors of government budget health expenditures,the number of participants,the disposable income of urban residents and hospital beds number have stronger correlations with the medical insurance expenditures. Conclusion：Supervision and management of medical services should be strengthened in China and provide advice to control the excessive growth of medical insurance costs should be provided.