油菜菌核病FUZZY预测法的商榷

Discussion on the fuzzy prediction method of Sclerotinia

根据油菜菌核病的"气象型"特性,本文运用FUZZY数学理论,用3个具有较好指示性的气象预报因子,建立了贴近度运算模型,并结合富阳市油菜菌核病的实际发生情况,设定了FUZZY贴近度预测规则。结果表明,该技术不仅回测拟合率高,而且取得了连续2年的试报成功。

Based on the ＂weather-type＂ features of Sclerotinia, the authors applied the fuzzy mathematical theory to establish a closeness computing model by three factors of weather forecast as robust indicators. The rules of fuzzy closeness forecast were also set up. This technology not only had a high fitting rate in return tests, but also has achieved success in test reports for two years.