森林火灾人为火源因素影响程度的主成分分析

Principal Component Analysis of Man-made Fire Sources in Forest Fires

针对森林火灾火源管理难度大,效率不高等问题,应用主成分分析方法,以广东省森林火灾人为火源因素为例,建立各火源因素对火灾发生的影响程度评价函数,利用该函数计算各火源因素影响程度得分并进行排序。结果表明,非生产性火源因素影响程度排在前3位的是野外吸烟、痴呆弄火、上坟烧纸,而生产性火源因素影响程度排在前3位的是烧荒烧灰、炼山造林、机车喷火。决策者在辖区内既可以重点关注对火灾有重要影响的火源因素的管理,又可以兼顾其他火源因素的管理,有效提高火源管理工作效率。

Due to the difficulties and low efficiencies in forest fire sources management, the function for evaluating and sorting the impacts of different fire sources to forest fire was obtained by the principal component analysis of the data from man-made forest fire in Guangdong province. The first three of non-productive fire sources were outdoor smoking, dementia playing fire and visiting one＇s grave. The top three of productive fire sources were burning mountain, refining mountain for afforestation and locomotive flame. According to the result,the decision-makers could focus on the important forest fire sources and also give consideration to the other fire sources. It could effectively improve the management efficiency of forest fire sources.