城市失业和经济增长之间关系的实证研究——基于托达罗模型的分析

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Urban Unemployment and Economic Growth——An Analysis Based on Todaro Model

我国经济增长中城镇增长所占比重越来越大,通过对全国31个省市区2000年—2007年经济增长率与失业率的panel data数据分析发现,较快的经济增长带来的不是城镇失业率的降低而是提高。原因在于托达罗模型所分析的发展中国家城市快速发展导致城镇失业的传导机制仍然存在。因此,需要反思目前中国城乡差别的制度,加大对农村固定资产投资和人力资本投资力度,加快新农村建设,缩小城乡差距,进而达到经济增长和城市失业问题的良性循环。

In recent years, the proportion of the urban growth in China＇s economic growth has been increasing. Through the analysis of annual economic growth rate and unemployment rate panel data of the 31 provinces in the years from 2000 to 2007 we find that the fast economic growth doesn＇t reduce the urban unemployment rate, instead, it improves it. The reason is that there still exists the transmission mechanism that the rapid development of cities in developing countries leads to urban unemployment based on the Todaro model. Therefore, we need to reflect on the current gap between urban and rural system of China, increase the fixed assets investment and human capital investment in the rural areas and speed up the construction of new rural areas and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. Then we can achieve the virtuous circle between the economic growth and urban unemployment.