基于灰色理论的地下水埋深预测分析

Analysis on Prediction of Groundwater Depth Based on the Grey Theory

根据灰色理论预测的基本原理,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对河北省沧州市东辛店乡地下水位埋深进行实例预测,并对预测结果进行精度检验,分析灰色理论模型在地下水位埋深预测的可行性,结果表明:灰色GM(1,1)可以在数据较少的情况下进行短期预测,且预测精度高,计算简单;另外,通过预测结果和采取措施后的实际水位埋深的比较,可以清晰的看到所采取措施的效果。

The article is based on the basic principle of the Grey theory,establishes the GM（1,1） forecast model which is forecasting groundwater table in Dongxindian town of Cangzhou City in Hebei Province.It tests accuracy of the prediction results and analyzes feasibility of the Gray theory model in the groundwater table depth predicted and indicates the role of the groundwater table predicted.