黑河日径流量混沌变化特性研究

Study on Characteristics of Daily Runoff Variation in the Heihe

通过对黑河日径流量变化规律的探索,重点论述相空间嵌入滞时的确定方法。计算结果表明:黑河日径流量的自相关函数呈现出明显的周期性,其周期与日径流量数据序列的周期基本一致;另外,采用了曲线下降趋势变缓的转折点,得到黑河日径流量序列的时间延迟为10天。

It is based on the exploration the Heihe runoff changes on the exploration,with emphasis on phase space embedding methods to determine the delay time,in order to further the establishment of a new prediction model and in-depth studies on runoff of Heihe chaotic change and lay the foundation characteristics.