含沙量预报方法探讨

Analysis on method of sediment concentration forecast

黄河的泥沙问题一直都是黄河治理的重点。进行含沙量预报将为一些治理黄河的措施提供技术支持。由于影响黄河含沙量的因素众多,预报技术难度大,至今没有可用的预报方案,可以说这在黄河上乃至其它河流都是空白。本文就现有的预报方法(输沙单位线法、响应函数法、神经网络法、水力学法),分析其影响因素和优缺点。就今后含沙量预报方法应努力的方向给出建议。

The sediment problem is an important issue in the Yellow River management.Reasonable prediction of sediment concentration could provide a technical support to other measures for the Yellow River.Currently there is no available forecasting programme for the Yellow River or other rivers due to the complexity of factors influencing sediment concentration.The paper analyzes the influencing factors and merits and faults for existing methods of sediment concentration forecast,such as instantaneous unit sediment graph method,response function,artificial neural networks,hydraulics,etc..