中国粮食对外贸易中虚拟耕地贸易量的估算与贡献分析——基于1978-2008年中国粮食对外贸易数据的实证分析

Analysis of quantity and contribution of virtual cultivated land in China's grain foreign trade

【目的】评价中国粮食对外贸易中虚拟耕地对本国耕地资源的贡献。【方法】在分析中国粮食对外贸易现状的基础上,运用虚拟耕地贸易量计算方法,对1978-2008年中国对外贸易中小麦、大豆、大米、玉米4种主要粮食的虚拟耕地贸易量进行估计,并分析了其对中国耕地资源的贡献。【结果】1978-2008年,在中国4种主要粮食的对外贸易中,虚拟耕地贸易一直保持较大逆差,除1985、1986、1993和1994年外,其余27年虚拟耕地贸易量均表现为净进口状态,虚拟耕地贸易净进口量从1978年的415.74万hm2增加到2008年的2 147.61万hm2;31年间,虚拟耕地交易量达22 397.47万hm2,其中大豆和小麦的虚拟耕地贸易净进口量为11 700.52万和7 219.37万hm2,玉米和大米的虚拟耕地贸易净出口量为2 843万和634.58万hm2;在大米、玉米、小麦和大豆4种粮食的对外贸易中,虚拟耕地贸易净进口量合计为15 442.31万hm2,相当于中国2008年耕地面积的1.27倍。【结论】虚拟耕地战略有助于加强耕地资源管理和优化耕地资源配置,实施虚拟耕地战略不仅可以缓解国内耕地资源压力和保护生态环境,而且可以发挥国内各地的比较优势、调整各地粮食种植结构、加强粮食主产区建设,这对保证耕地和粮食双安全具有重要的现实意义。

【Objective】 The contribution of the virtual cultivated land in China＇s grain foreign trade to cultivated land resource was evaluated.【Method】 Using the method of virtual cultivated land,the quantity and contribution of virtual cultivated land of the four major grains from 1978 to 2008 were estimated.【Result】 The trade volume of virtual cultivated land in China＇s four grain foreign trade remained deficit from 1978 to 2008.The trade volume of virtual cultivated land showed a net import status except 1985,1986,1993 and 1994.The net imported virtual cultivated land increased from 415.74×104 hm2 in 1978 to 2 147.61×104 hm2 in 2008;During the 31 years,the trade volume of virtual cultivated land reached 22 397.47×104 hm2;The net imported virtual cultivated land in soybean and wheat trade was 11 700.52×104 hm2 and 7 219.37×104 hm2;The net exported in maize and rice trade was 2 843×104 hm2 and 634.58×104 hm2;The net imported virtual cultivated land in the four grain trade was 15 442.31×104 hm2,which was equal to 1.27 times of China＇s cultivated land area in 2008.【Conclusion】 The strategy of virtual cultivated land broadens the horizon of cultivated land resource management and allocation,which not only releases the pressure of national cultivated land resource and protects biological environment,but also makes the best of compartive advantage in the country,adjusts planting structure of different areas,and promotes the construction of main grain producing areas.It has realistic significance in ensuring the security of cultivated land and grain production.