基于熵权可拓模型的水资源承载能力评价

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity based on entropy-weight and extension model

【目的】探索水资源承载能力评价方法,为水资源的合理开发利用提供依据。【方法】鉴于物元可拓的概念,引入改进的可拓方法——最大贴近度法,并用熵值法确定权重系数,避免了权重系数确定过程中的主观性,由此提出了熵权可拓模型。以河南省禹州市为例,利用该模型对禹州市不同频率年的不同规划年份水资源承载力进行评价。【结果】利用熵权可拓模型对禹州市水资源承载能力进行评价,得出禹州市不同频率年的不同规划年份水资源承载力距离各等级值的远近,表明该地区水资源开发利用已有相当规模,但仍有一定的开发利用潜力,水资源的供给在一定程度上能满足该区的社会发展。【结论】与禹州市社会发展及水资源利用的实际情况相比,该评价结果合理,说明所建立的熵权可拓模型适用于水资源承载力的评价。

【Objective】 An evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity is explored to provide a basis for rational development and utilization of water resources.【Method】 In view of matter-element extension of the concept,a model is established by the introduction of improved extension method-the greatest close-degree method and entropyt method to determine the weight factor with the support of entropy-weight and extension theory.This avoids the weight coefficients determined by subjective issue.And the model can be used to evaluate water resources carrying capacity for different frequencies in different planning years in Yuzhou.【Result】 Applying entropy-weight and extension model to evaluate water resources carrying capacity in Yuzhou,water resources carrying capacity of annual value of the distance from each grade is obtained for different frequencies in different planning years.The water resources exploitation and utilization of Yuzhou has considerable scale,but there is a potential for exploitation.Water supply demanding can meet the region＇s social development to a certain extent.【Conclusion】 Compared with social development and practical situation,the results are reasonable and the model adapts to water resources carrying capacity assessment.