基于“一般到简单”建模法的入境旅游需求研究

Study on Inbound Tourism Demand Based on the General-to-Specific Approach

随着国际旅游业的迅速发展,入境旅游需求成为学术界研究的热点领域。本文基于1979-2008年中国4个主要客源国的数据,采用"一般到简单"建模法分析了入境旅游需求的主要影响因素及预测模型的选择。结果表明,旅游者的忠诚行为是影响入境旅游需求的最主要因素;价格和收入对不同客源国的旅游需求的影响程度不同;各种经济社会及自然因素等不可控因素都大幅度影响国际旅游需求,使中国旅游业严重受挫;旅游需求的预测应基于经济理论和统计检验结果。

With the rapid development of international tourism,inbound tourism demand analysis has been a hot topic in the tourism field.Based on the data of the 4 major origin countries from 1979-2008,the paper analyzes the factors which contribute to the demand for China＇s inbound tourism and the selection principle forecasting models applying the general-to-specific approach.The empirical results reveal the most important factor determining the demand for China tourism by the origin countries is tourist＇s loyalty.The price and the income play different roles in determining the demand for China tourism for different origin countries.The uncontrolled factors are likely to affect the international demand strongly which damage the tourism industry in China.The choice of tourism forecasting models should be based on consistency with economic theory and statistical performance.