我国产业结构与对外贸易互动关系实证研究

An Empirical Study on Interaction between Industrial Structure and Foreign Trade in China

产业结构的优化调整离不开进出口的因素。本文通过对1979-2008年我国进出口与产业结构的相关数据,利用VAR模型对三者之间的相互关系进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,我国进出口与产业结构之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,三者互为因果,但相互影响的程度并不是太高。主要建议是应该重视进出口对我国产业结构调整的重要意义,不断调整进出口战略,进一步理顺进出口与产业结构优化之间相互作用的通道,从而实现三者长期良好的互动。

The optimization and adjustment of a country＇s industrial structure is vitally influenced by its imports and exports.Based on the related data from 1979 to 2008,the paper carries out an empirical analysis of the relationship between imports,exports and the industrial structure by VAR model.The results show that imports,exports and industrial structure have a dynamic equilibrium relationship in the long run in China,and the three have an interaction on each other as well,but not to particularly high degree.Main recommendations involves the following aspects： pay more attention to the significance of imports and exports to the industrial structure adjustment;constantly adjust imports and exports strategies,and further rationalize the channel between the imports,exports and industrial structure optimization in order to achieve long-term good interaction among the three.