人类活动对黄河下游水沙特性影响分析

Human Activities on Water and Sediment Changes in the Lower Yellow River

分析黄河下游水沙量数据,研究人类活动对其影响,可以为今后治理黄河提供重要依据,对指导人类活动有重要的现实意义。运用随机水文学的方法对黄河下游4个站(花园口、高村、艾山、利津)1950年-2007年的径流量和输沙量分析发现,黄河下游水沙量具有下降的线性趋势,且变化以跳跃模式发生。其变化受水土保持、引水调水(南水北调等)、水库运用等人类活动的影响,同时降水量(1956年-2000年)下降,是黄河径流量下降的一个重要因素。在不需全面考虑的情况下,可以通过分析花园口和利津的水沙量来反映黄河下游水沙量的跳跃变化。

Analysis of the quantity of water and sand of the Lower Yellow River and research on the impact of human activities on them can provide an important basis for the future control of the Yellow River and have important practical significance for guiding human activities.Using stochastic hydrology methods to analyze the annual runoff and sediment discharge（1950～2007） of the four hydrologic stations in the lower Yellow River（Huayuankou,Gaocun,Aishan,Lijin）,this article found that the quantity of water and sand of the lower Yellow River during this period have a linear trend of decrease,and the change in the form of jumping.Its change is affected by the human activities,such as the soil and water conservation,water diversion（South-North Water Diversion etc.）,reservoirs etc.,and the decreased rainfall（1956～2000）is an important factor why the runoff of the Yellow River in the decline.Meanwhile,under certain conditions,the analysis of the annual runoff and sediment discharge of Huayuankou and Lijin Station may reflect the jumping changes in the quantity of water and sand of the lower Yellow River.