基于改进灰色关联度的IOWA算子最优组合预测模型

The Optimal Combination Forecasting Model Based on Improved Grey Incidence and Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging(IOWA) Operator

通过引进诱导有序加权平均(IOWA)算子和改进灰色关联度的计算式,提出了新的基于改进灰色关联度的IOWA算子的组合预测模型.方法可以克服传统的组合预测方法赋予不变的加权平均系数和以单一误差指标作为预测精度衡量的缺陷.定义基于改进灰色关联度的IOWA算子的优性组合预测的概念,最后给出实例分析表明了新模型能有效地提高组合预测精度.

Based on induced ordered weighted averaging （IOWA） operators and improved grey incidence, a new optimal combination forecasting model is proposed. The model can overcome some deficiencies in weighting and using single error index as forecasting precision measure of traditional combination forecasting model. In this paper, the conception of superior combination forecasting is given. Finally, an example is illustrated to show that the new model can improve forecasting precision effectively.