太湖蓝藻水华灾害程度评价方法

Method of cyanobacteria bloom hazard degree evaluation in Taihu Lake

通过对太湖蓝藻水华灾害分析,借鉴赤潮灾害评价指标,采取蓝藻水华面积和Chla浓度作为灾害程度分级评价指标,应用层次分析法确定权重,结合隶属度函数,采用模糊综合评价建立太湖蓝藻水华灾度分级评价方法,定量描述蓝藻水华灾害程度.结合2008年太湖蓝藻水华灾害事件对该方法进行验证.结果表明,2008年太湖蓝藻水华灾害规模主要为小型、中型和大型,无重大和特大蓝藻水华灾害发生;其中小型蓝藻水华灾害在各月都有分布,中型和大型蓝藻水华灾害主要分布在5月和7-9月.评价结果表明该方法具有一定的科学性和适用性.

Referring to the indices of red tide hazard evaluation,cyanobacteria bloom area and Chla concentration was took as evaluation indices and a hazard degree evaluation method was established based on the analysis of cyanobacteria bloom hazard in Taihu Lake.AHP method was applied to determine the weights and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to quantitatively estimate the hazard degree.Cyanobacteria bloom hazards in Taihu Lake in 2008 were evaluated through the above method.The hazards of Taihu Lake in 2008 were mainly small,medium and large,and there were no significant and serious cyanobacteria bloom.In the different hazards,the small hazard distributed each month,and the medium and large hazards were mainly distributed in May and from July to December.The evaluation method could be successfully applied in the scientific research and field operation.