中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给

Demand and Supply for Residential Housing in Urban China

本文研究了自1980年代后期中国城镇住房商品化以来城镇居民住房的需求与供给。我们从耐用消费品需求与供给的标准理论出发,在联立方程框架下估计城镇住房的需求与供给方程,得到了需求的收入与价格弹性及供给的价格弹性的估计值。通过对1987～2006年全国城镇总体水平年度数据的分析,我们发现城镇住房价格的快速上涨主要可由需求与供给的作用解释,即人均收入和建筑成本的变化决定了房价的整体趋势。城镇住房需求的(长期)收入弹性约为1,需求的价格弹性在0.5到0.6之间。住房存量总供给的价格弹性约为0.83。

This paper addresses the issue of demand and supply for residential housing in urban China since the late 1980s when the urban housing market became commercialized. We start with the basic premise that the standard theory of demand for and supply of consumer durable goods is applicable to urban housing in China af- ter the market for housing was established. In a simultaneous equations framework we provide estimates of income and price elasticities of demand and price elasticity of supply. Analysis of aggregated annual data from 1987 to 2006 shows that the rapid increase of urban residential housing can be well explained by the forces of demand and supply, i. e. , growth in income and change in construction cost determines the aggregated movement in housing price to a large extent. We have found the （long-run） income elasticity of demand for urban housing to be about 1, and the price elasticity of demand to be between - 0. 5 and - 0. 6. The price elasticity of supply of the total stock of housing is about 0. 83.