中国财政政策的“挤出效应”——基于1952～2008年中国年度数据的实证分析

"Crowding Out Effect" Of Fiscal Policy In China:An Empirical Analyses Based on the Annual Data of 1952～2008

"挤出效应"指政府购买支出的增加将会导致投资的下降,公共支出的增加将会"挤出"投资。在应对金融危机而采取扩张性财政政策的今天,对财政政策效果的研究是一个热点问题。本研究运用两个著名的模型:国家干预主义的凯恩斯模型和从微观经济主体利益最大化出发的拉姆齐模型,对政府购买支出与实际利率和投资之间的关系进行分析。两个模型都得出了政府购买支出与实际利率同方向变动,与投资反方向变动的结论,两者的差别在于传导机制不同和政策有无滞后效应。通过对1952—2008年中国宏观经济时间序列年度数据的实证分析,本研究发现,政府购买支出与名义利率有同期的、显著的正相关关系,与投资有同期的、显著的负相关关系;中国的财政政策具有同期的、显著的"挤出效应"。

Crowding out effect means that the increase of government purchase could result in the decrease Of private investment, so the expansion of public expenditure would crowd out private investment Meanwhile the government is usingexpansionary fiscal policy to deal with the financial crisis, so the study on the effect of fiscal policy is a hot issue. This study uses two famous medelS; country intervening based Keynesian Model and representative individual optimal based Ramsey Model, to analyze the relation of government purchase to real interest and private investment. Two models reach the same conclusion that government pur- chase is positive to real interest and negative to private investment, and the only discrepancies are the different transmission mechanisms and whether there is lagging effect. According to the analyses of China＇s macroeconomic time series annual data in 1952 -2008, this study reveals that, government purchase has a significantly positive and contemporary relation with nominal interest as well as a significantly negative and contemporary relation with private investment, which means that China＇s fiscal policy has a contemporary significant crowding out effect.