美国对华贸易摩擦的周期及趋势

The Cycle and Trend of the Sino-US Trade Friction

分析美国历年对华反倾销与反补贴调查的立案数的变化,可以发现美国对华贸易摩擦存在周期性震荡,从1980年至今已经历4个周期。这种震荡与中美政治关系和美国宏观经济走势之间并不直接相关,具有相对独立性,但与中国宏观经济走势有较清晰的关联。中国经济在"中心——外围"结构内属于"依附型发展",因其规模的庞大和基本制度架构的稳定性,引起美国决策层的疑虑,是形成前述关联性、乃至震荡周期的重要根源。在未来,美国对华贸易摩擦可能会出现金融化和多边化两项趋势。中美贸易关系的发展,反而加深了美国对中国经济的依附,形成了"依附的悖论",未来中美在贸易上的非对称关系可能会改变。

Through the analysis on changes of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases to-wards China carried out by America in the last few years,it is possible to find that there is a seasonal shock in Sino-US trade friction. From 1980 till now,the history has witnessed four such seasonal shocks. Such friction is not directly related to either Sino-US political relations or the trend of macro-economy of America,but is relatively independent. It is closely related to the trend of China 's macro-economy. The dependant development of China's macro-economy in core-periphery structure is stable with its large size and the basic structure,which causes the American policymaker's doubts. This is the major root that forms the above mentioned relativity and seasonal shocks. In the future,Sino-US trade friction may develop in two trends:more financial frictions and more multilateral frictions. The de-velopment of Sino-US trade,on the contrary,deepens America's attachment to China's economy,and thereafter,comes the concept of 'The Paradox of dependence'. In the following days,asymmetric relation between China and America may be changed.