中国财政政策是否具有顺周期性

Toward the Cycling of China's Financial Policies

作为反周期工具的财政政策,调控行为及效果是研究的一个焦点之一。本文通过梳理相关理论,利用计量方法、设计相机财政统计量、检验财政政策行为特征,得出如下结论:我国财政收入受经济周期影响显著,具有较强的顺周期性。财政支出总量波动顺周期行为显著,但结构变量波动周期特征不一,从类别上分析,购买性支出变量较转移支付变量顺周期特征明显;从时间上分析,财政支出在1998年之前具有一定的顺周期特征,之后逐渐呈现出经济繁荣期的顺周期与经济萧条期的逆周期并存的非对称性特征。与其他国相比,中国相机执行了更多积极的财政刺激措施,在经济下滑时期表现出更高的逆周期性;在经济上升时期具有更高的顺周期性;相机抉择效应大于自动稳定器效应,因此具有显著的非对称性顺周期。

Research in the regulation behaviors and effects of financial policies as a counter cycling tool is one of the hot issues.Based on related theories and methods,this article concludes that China's financial revenue is significantly affected by economic cycles.The general cycling behaviors of financial expenditures is significant while differences exist for structural fluctuations.Financial expenditures indicate cycling trends in a certain extent before 1998 and mixed trends thereafter.A stronger counter cycling during economic downturn and a stronger cycling during economic up-rise exists in China due to more positive financial stimuli compared with other countries.