中国能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

Energy Consumption,Energy Consumption Structure and Economic Growth in China——an Empirical Research Based on ARDL Model

能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长间存在着密切的关系。节能减排政策的施行是否会影响到我国的经济增长,能源消费结构与能源消费间有着怎样的联系,这些都是在节能减排政策制定中亟待解决的问题。本文利用1978-2007年的样本数据,使用ARDL模型方法对以上三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。发现经济增长对能源消费和能源结构在长期和短期内都有显著影响,且能源消费和能源消费结构间也存在相互的影响。未发现能源消费和能源消费结构对经济增长的长期影响。推行适宜的节能减排政策不会阻滞我国的经济增长,而节能减排政策的一项重点应该是能源消费结构的优化调整。

There is a close interrelationship among energy consumption,energy consumption structure and economic growth.The effect of energy saving and emission policies on economic growth and the relationship between energy consumption and its structure are the issues to be solved by policy-making of energy saving and emission reduction.According to sample data through 1978-2007,this paper empirically researches the relationship among energy consumption,energy consumption structure and economic growth with ARDL model.We conclude that economic growth has significant impact on energy consumption and its structure both in the long and short terms,that interdependence exists between energy consumption and its structure,that economic consumption and its structure have no long term impact on economic growth,that the implementation of appropriate energy saving and emission reduction policies will not block China's economic growth.