不同经济区经济增长占用耕地数量的差异分析——以江苏省无锡市、扬州市为例

The Differences of Cultivated Land Areas Occupied for the Economic Increase in Different Economic Regions——A Case Study in Wuxi and Yangzhou of Jiangsu Province

采用1978~2006年耕地统计和社会经济资料,对江苏省经济发达的无锡市、经济较发达的扬州市2个不同经济区的经济增长占用耕地资源数量情况进行了分析。结果表明：2个不同经济区的耕地变化无论是总面积上还是人均面积均呈明显的下降趋势,且经济发达的无锡市相对于经济较发达的扬州市耕地总面积和人均面积减少幅度更大、递减率更快;不同经济区的耕地资源面积随着GDP的增加均呈指数递减趋势,用拟合的指数方程能较好地预测不同经济区经济增长占用的耕地面积;在不同的经济区每单位的GDP增长所消耗的耕地面积随着经济的增加均呈下降趋势,但下降速度不同;不同经济区的经济增长占用耕地面积大致以2005年为界线划分为两个典型阶段。

Based on cultivated land and social economic materials from 1978 to 2006, the areas of cultivated land occupied for the economic increase were analyzed in three different economic regions of Jiangsu Province. The results indicated that： （1） There was great difference in total area and per area of cultivated land in these regions in past 29 years. Wuxih was more developed than Yangzhou, rapidly reduced in cultivated land total area and per area ;（2） The area of cultivated land has an exponential decrease trend with the increase of GDP. The estimated values of cultivated land area calculated by the exponential function had less errors compared with original values, which verified that it was viable using the exponential function to predict the change of the occupation of cultivated land with the increase of GDP; （3） The area of cultivated land occupied for the increase of per GDP had been decreasing continuously with the development of economy for the two regions, but with different rates; （4） It found that the changing processes of the occupied area of cultivated land was carved up the two typical phases referred to the 2005 as a dividing line in different economic regions.