我国生产能力利用率的估算与预测

The Estimation and Forecast of Capacity Utilization in China

本文首先对生产能力利用率以及产出缺口的估计方法进行总结和比较,并在此基础上提出了关于估算生产能力利用率的新方法。在新方法的计算过程中,估算其他经济变量的取值或者估计经济变量的趋势项都已经不再必须,这为生产能力利用率的估算减轻了计算的负担,减少了争议。其次,本文估算出我国改革开放以来的生产能力利用率,并且对其变化趋势进行分析预测。最后,针对我国生产能力利用率的变化趋势提出政策建议。

At first,we conclude all kinds of methods to estimate capacity utilization or output gap and compare each other.Then,based on them,we bring forward a new method to estimate capacity utilization.In the computation process of new method,it is not necessary to estimate the value or trend of other economic variables.Therefore,the burden or controversies of computation is reduced under this new method.Then,capacity utilization in China is estimated in this paper,and we an-alyze the trend of capacity utilization.At last,policy suggestions are brought forward to the trend of capacity utilization in China.