影响中国出口贸易的主导因素分析

The Analysis of Dominant Factors to Impact Export Trades in China

本文采用自回归分布滞后模型和边限检验方法,利用1997年1季度至2008年4季度的数据估计了中国进出口贸易需求的收入弹性、价格弹性和汇率弹性,结果发现国外收入变化是影响中国出口的主要因素,产品价格对出口的影响较小,而人民币汇率波动对出口的影响不确定。因此,如果采取低价格促进出口的措施,不仅是低效的,而且是得不偿失的。转向以内需驱动为主的经济增长方式,是中国经济发展的必然战略选择。

Employing the ARDL approach and the bound test, this paper estimates the elasticity of income,price and exchange rate of trade demand for exports and imports in China from 1997 Q1 to 2008 Q4. The results show that the foreign income change is the dominant impact factor on China＇ s exports, and product price has little influences on exports, while exchange rate of RMB has uncertain influences on exports. Stimulating export through the low price policy may possibly lead to low efficiency and even unreasonable results. China must select reasonable economic growth pattern driven by the domestic demand.