摘要
频繁波动的能源价格、日益丰富的市场成员和复杂的竞争策略使得投资规模较大、技术覆盖面较广的智能电网投资面临了众多潜在的市场化风险。合理的智能电网投资效益分析将是防范投资风险的重要途径之一。论述了从社会效益和经济效益两方面构建多层次的智能电网投资效益综合评价指标体系。基于定性与定量分析相结合的原则,在模糊综合评价法的基础上,引入三角模糊数和调整因子,模拟专家判断的模糊性,实现合理的智能电网投资效益的综合评价。以某省的智能电网投资为例,验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。
Smart electric grid investment with larger investment and broader technical coverage has to face many potential risk of market because of volatilities of energy price,increasingly growth of market participants and complex competitive strategy.Reasonable investment to smart grid is one of the important methods to prevent potential risks.Multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system of smart electric grid investment benefit was expounded from social and economic benefits.Based on the principle of combining the qualitative and quantitative analysis,a reasonable evaluation of the benefits of the investments is completed by introducing triangular fuzzy number and the adjustment factor to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Taking smart electric grid investments in one province as an example,the efficiency and rationality of the model was verified.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2010年第5期638-641,共4页
East China Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70671041
70771039)
关键词
智能电网
投资效益
三角模糊数
调整因子
smart electric grid
investment benefit
triangular fuzzy number
adjustment factor
