基于信息熵的装备战场损伤建模不确定性研究

Study of Uncertainty in Equipment Battlefield Damage Modeling

为了解决装备战场损伤仿真系统模型中各子模型之间的不兼容性问题,可以直接利用子模型提供的相关结论。采用条件熵理论衡量了利用子模型结论过程中所导致的不确定性增大问题;提出了不确定度概念用于定量分析各输入参数对模型不确定性的影响程度;采用贝叶斯网络技术研究了多个子模型构成的复合模型描述问题,以及相应的条件熵计算问题;最后介绍了一个关于装备战场损伤的单一模型和复合模型的不确定性分析案例。

In order to resolve the incompatibility among the submodels in the equipment battlefield damage simulation model, the conclusion obtained from submodels could be utilized directly. The increase of uncertainty induced in the using of conclusion obtained from submodels was calculated through condition entropy. The concept of uncertainty was proposed in order to analyze the input parameter’s effects on models quantificationally. The compound model constructed by several submodels, as well as its condition entropy, were researched through Bayesian network. At last, a single model case and a compound model case about equipment battlefield damage were introduced.