论人民币汇率在我国货币政策操作框架中的传导作用——基于“中介变量法”的实证研究

The Transmission Role of the Renminbi Exchange Rate in the Monetary Policy Framework of China:an Empirical Study Based on the"Mediatory Variable Method"

本文采用"中介变量法"对汇率在我国货币政策操作框架中的传导作用进行了实证研究。结果表明,汇率在"货币政策-汇率-通货膨胀"的货币政策传导机制中确实起到了一定的传导作用,完全通过了"中介变量法"的三步检验,但是在"货币政策-汇率-经济增长"的传导机制中,汇率未能通过"中介变量法"的检验。因此,在我国以保持币值稳定为目标的货币政策中不能忽视汇率的传导作用。

As mediatory variable method is applied widely and accepted universally in the international arena, this paper gives an empirical study on the transmission role of the Renminbi exchange rate in the monetary policy framework of China using that method. The results show that the exchange rate does play a certain role in the ＂monetary policy - exchange rate - inflation＂ monetary policy transmission mechanism and pass the three-step test of ＂Mediatory Variable Method＂ entirely. But in the ＂monetary policy - exchange rate - economic growth ＂transmission mechanism, the exchange rate fails to pass the ＂Mediatory Variable Method＂ test. Therefore, we can not ignore the transmission role of the exchange rate in our monetary policy, which targets the stability of the currency.