多区域CGE模型与区域转移支付政策模拟

Multi-regional CGE Model and the Simulation of Regional Transfer

根据地区差距的表现形式和构成要素,以及地区之间发展不平衡的特点,并考虑到数据的可得性,将全国划分为八大区域进行多区域的模拟分析。模拟结果显示,当对单个区域的转移支付增加时,无论区域的经济发展水平如何,中央政府对地方政府增加转移支付后,都刺激了接受转移支付区域的地区产出的增加,从增加的幅度来看,西南区域大于中部,而中部大于南部沿海区域;总体上看全国总产出稍有增加。模拟还显示,中央政府对地方政府增加转移支付后,接受转移支付区域的政府收入和居民收入有了相应的提高,同时还带动了京津以及东部沿海区域城乡居民收入的增加;分城乡来看,城镇居民的收入提高幅度大于农村居民,这反映了当前在全国范围内,政府提供的公共服务的受益者主要是城镇居民。

This paper researches the multi-regional policy CGE model from the perspective of how to increase the region harmony.According to the features and factors of the regional gap,the characters of the development difference among the regions and the availability of data,we divide the whole economy into eight regions and make some multi-region simulation analysis.The simulation results show that region output grow when the central government increases the transfer to local government no matter what the economy development will be.The growth rate in the south-east region is larger than the middle region and that in the middle region is larger than the south region while the total output of the whole country also increases.The simulation results also show that the local government revenue and the income of resident in the region which receives the transfer increase when the central government increase the transfer.However,the income growth of the urban households is larger than the rural households,which shows that urban residents are the main beneficiaries of the public services.