社会保障对家庭人力资本数量的影响机理

Economical analysis of influence mechanism of social security on household′s human capital

国外越来越多的经济学家着力研究社会保障制度的经济效应。随着中国社会保障制度的建立和完善,有必要分析这项制度对微观主体经济行为的影响机理。建立一个两时期的交叠世代模式,分别对自由放任或基金制经济和现收现付制经济中家庭的生育决策和人力资本投资决策进行了分析。发现现收现付制经济中家庭倾向于减少对子女的投入,从而产生了一种内在的、自动的降低生育率的机制。因此,建议在农村建立现收现付的养老保险制度,改变农村的养老模式,同时加大对农村劳动力的就业促进和就业培训,促使农村人口由数量向质量的转变。

More and more foreign researchers are dealing with economic effects of social security.Chinese social security system is developing repidly,and so it is necessary to research this system on how to influence on people′s economic behavior.One overlapping-generations model of two periods was developed to distinguish the decisions of household fertility and human capital investment between laissez-faire or funded economy and pay-as-you-go economy.It is found that household will invest less to children in pay-as-you-go economy than in laissez-faire or funded economy,which makes an internal and automatic fertility-reduced mechanism.So,a pay-as-you-go social security system in Chinese countryside is suggested to be established.This system will help to change the mode of providing for the old.With doing more in occupation facilitating and skill training to rural labors,government can promote transfer from demographic quantity to quality in Chinese rural areas.