城市综合承灾能力与经济发展协调性研究

Research on harmony between urban's integrated disaster bearing capacity and economic development

构成城市综合承灾能力的防灾能力、抗灾能力、救灾能力和灾后恢复能力是相互联系的。城市综合承灾能力与城市经济发展水平紧密相连。利用灰关联熵方法,分析了某城市各种承灾能力的关联性大小,以及综合承灾能力与城市经济发展水平的关联强度。但关联性强,却不能说明协调得就好。因此,又利用灰色系统理论的思想,分析了城市综合承灾能力与城市经济发展水平的协调关系,发现城市综合承灾能力对城市经济发展水平有明显的滞后性。分析得出该滞后性存在的原因后,通过对序列进行时间平移,证实了对滞后性原因的判断,并提出了加快加强城市综合承灾能力建设的建议,为后续发展奠定坚实基础。

The component parts of urban integrated disaster bearing capacity,i.e.capabilities of disaster defending,resistance,rescue and recovery are interactive.The grey relation entropy method was used to analyze the coordination among all capabilities and the coordinaton intensity between the integrated disaster bearing capacity and economic development level for some city.Although the coordination is high,but it does not mean that the harmony is good.The grey system theory was used for analysis of the relationship between urban integrated disaster bearing capacity and economic development and then the obvious delay of the former to the latter was found.After analyzing the reason of delay,the data serial was shift on time base to prove the validity of the supposed reason for delay based on which the suggestion was put forward that the urban＇s integrated disaster bearing capacity should be improved as soon as possible.