潜艇火灾事故中的人因失误概率分析

Human error probability analysis of fire accident in submarine

研究了潜艇发生火灾后,艇员在各种因素的影响下出现误操作的概率以及由此对火灾进程的影响。为了从定量角度分析这一问题,基于传统的事故树分析技术,结合人因可靠性理论中的人为差错预计法,构造了人因事件树,以计算各分支路径的概率值。在算例部分,针对某一核潜艇内的火灾场景,运用上述方法,定量评估了艇员误操作而导致的系统失效路径的概率。

This paper studies on erroneous operation probability of submarine＇s crew after breakout of fire under various factors and its influence on the process of fire.To quantitatively solve this problem,the traditional event tree analysis technique was adopted as the basis,together with technique for human error rate prediction in human reliability theory,with which the human event tree was built to calculate the probability for each branch.In case study,the aforementioned method is adopted for the fire scenario of a certain nuclear submarine,to quantitatively assess the probability of the failure route of the system induced by the erroneous operation of the submarines crew.