突变理论在蓄滞洪区洪灾风险评价中的应用

Application of catastrophe theory to evaluation of flood risk in detention basin

以洪灾威胁严重的蓄滞洪区为研究背景,从系统论角度构建了洪灾风险评价指标体系。以海河流域重点蓄滞洪区之一——大黄堡洼为研究区,将突变理论评价法和模糊综合评价法应用于洪灾风险综合评价中,二者评价结果大体相同,并与相关数据显示的实际情况基本吻合,验证了突变理论方法用于洪灾风险评价的可靠性。突变评价法根据目标在归一公式本身中的内在矛盾地位和机制确定指标重要程度,而无需计算权重,减少了主观人为性,且计算简单,便于应用,为洪灾风险评价提供了一个新的途径。

A multi-principle evaluation index system for flood risk was suggested,according to characteristics of flood hazard in detention basin,in view of the system theory.The fundamentals and method of catastrophe theory were introduced.this system and fuzzy assessme were applied to evaluation of flood risk in Dahuangpuwa of Haihe River Basin.Results derived from the two methods are consistent,and they are in accordance with the actual situation.The proposed method is easy of calculation and is not necessary to determine the weights of evaluation indices so that the influence of subjective factors on assessment can be minimized.This paper offers a new way for comprehensive evaluation of the flood risk.