上海沿海六区县自然灾害脆弱性评价

Assessment of vulnerability of six coastal districts in Shanghai to natural disasters

沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位,然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害时具有较高的脆弱性,即同等灾害强度下,沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多,经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度,分析了影响灾害脆弱性的五个方面,顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势,依据一定的原则,不分灾种,面对区域和人群,选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的指标评价体系,利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行了确定,建立了脆弱性模型,并在收集和标准化数据的基础上,对上海沿海六区县进行了脆弱性评价,并对各个地区的区域脆弱性、人群脆弱性和整体脆弱性进行对比分析,为灾害管理提供理论依据。同时,通过评价结论,总结了沿海城市的自然灾害脆弱性特点,并为上海市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响提供对策建议。

Coastal cities possess an important position in the development of the world,but they have to face high risk in front of natural disasters because of this kind of special location and high-density population and fortune.Coastal cities will suffer much more when confronted hazards of the same intensity.From the angle of hazard-affected bodies in a disaster system,this paper analyzes the socioeconomic and factitious causes of the vulnerability in natural disasters from five points of view.According to the trend of quantification,we attempt to select representative indices to establish vulnerability assessment index systems in natural disasters by some principles.After calculating the index weights with AHP method,this paper sets up a vulnerability assessment model of multiple natural disasters for coastal cities.Finally,after collecting and normalizing the data,this paper computes the regional vulnerability and the human vulnerability of six coastal districts in Shanghai.The results give a reference to disaster management.In the meantime,this paper summarizes the vulnerability characters of natural disasters about coastal cities and put forward some suggestions in order to reduce the vulnerability and mitigate the influence of natural disasters.