建设用地需求量预测方法比较研究——以广西壮族自治区永福县为例

A Comparison of Prediction Methods of Construction Land Demand——With Yongfu County in Guangxi as an Example

建设用地需求量预测是土地利用总体规划修编的重要组成部分,选用合理的方法准确预测规划目标年的建设用地需求量具有重要意义。分析比较了双因素预测法、趋势预测法和GM(1,1)模型法预测建设用地需求量的特性与适用条件,以广西壮族自治区永福县为例,对建设用地需求总量预测进行了实证研究。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型法在县域建设用地需求量预测中具有较好的精度,更符合县域经济的发展。该研究成果可为新一轮土地利用总体规划修编中建设用地趋势变化分析以及需求量的确定提供借鉴参考。

Prediction of construction land demand is an important part of land use planning; and choosing reasonable methods is of great significance. This paper compares the dual factor prediction, trend forecast method and the GM （ 1,1 ） model to predict the characteristics and demand of construction land suitable conditions, and studies the total demand prediction of a county＇ s construction land with Yongfu County as an example. The results show that the GM （1, 1 ） model in the prediction of construction land demand is more precise and conducive to the development of local economy, which may provide reference for the analysis of construction land use change trend and the determination of the demand in a new round of land use planning.